Forecasted Hydrographs

The forecasted hydrographs combine our volume forecast with a forecast about the timing of when the water will move through the system to approximate what the shape of the hydrograph. Here we use the center of mass, which is the time of year at which point half of the water has moved past the gaging location. These forecasts should not be used for determining what the streamflow will be on a given day, rather, they are helpful for visualizing the relative magnitude and timing of streamflow in comparison to the median.

The blue line shows the median forecasted streamflow across the model runs, and the grey shading shows the predictive uncertainty around the forecasted median (5% to 95%).